F-35 Crisis between the U.S. and Türkiye: Is This the End of American Nuclear Assurance for Türkiye?

Abstract

This article analyzes the possible consequences of the F-35 fighter crisis between the U.S. and Türkiye, particularly in terms of its effect on the tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) now deployed in Türkiye as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing program. It argues that the U.S. should respond to Ankara’s demands by either allowing Türkiye to rejoin the F-35 fighter project or by selling new F-16 fighters and modernization kits to Türkiye that will permit its continued deployment of TNWs. This move would, in turn, prevent the ‘brain death’ of the alliance; otherwise, negative attitudes emanating from the U.S. may lead Türkiye to search for alternative suppliers, a move that could include buying fighter aircraft from Russia or China and might lead Türkiye to question its membership in NATO. Anything that causes Türkiye to do this is a problem in the current security environment since competition between NATO and Russia has reached dangerous levels with the Russian invasion of Ukraine under the shadow of the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.