Climate Change Impacts on Potential Groundwater Recharge in the Palas Basin, Turkey

Abstract

Climate change poses a major threat for sustainability of groundwater resources. In this study, we aimed to determine how climate change can affect groundwater recharge potential in the Palas Basin. Palas Basin is a semi-arid closed basin located in Kayseri, in the central Anatolia region of Turkey. Agriculture is the major economic activity in the region and groundwater is used extensively for irrigation purposes. In this study, we estimated potential groundwater recharge for the Palas Basin under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected by the HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, GFDL-ESM2M global climate models. All models projected a decrease in mean annual potential groundwater recharge under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the trends in annual potential groundwater recharge were downward according to the HadGEM2-ES and MPIESM-MR models but slightly positive according to the GFDL-ESM2M model. For the sustainability of groundwater system and agricultural activities in the basin, climate change adaptation strategies should be developed for the agricultural sector.